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The next Forum On Educational Policy (information in German only). with the topic "Early Childhood Education" will take place on 25th September at the Landesvertretung Schleswig-Holstein in Berlin.

Foto (v.l.n.r): MNStudio/shutterstock.com, photodeti/123RF.com, auremar/123RF.com, Diego Cervo/shutterstock.com

Publications

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DIW on 15.08.2018, 09:00 h
Who Teaches the Teacher? A RCT of Peer-to-Peer Observation and Feedback in 181 Schools

Abstract: It is well established that teachers are the most important in-school factorin determining student outcomes. However, to date there is scant robustquantitative research demonstrating that teacher training programs can havelasting impacts on student test scores. To address this gap, weconduct andevaluate a teacher peer-to-peer observation and feedback program underRandomized Control Trial (RCT) conditions. Half of 181 volunteer primaryschools in England were randomly selected to participate in the two yearprogram. We find that students of treated teachers perform no better onnational tests a year after the program ended. The absence of [...] ( more )

DIW on 15.08.2018, 05:00 h
Successful Climate Protection via Rapid Coal Phaseout in Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia

Abstract: Power generation from lignite and hard coal was responsible for more than a quarter of German greenhouse gas emissions in 2016. Of all federal states, North Rhine-Westphalia is by far the largest carbon emitter. The Growth, Structural Change and Regional Development Commission (also known as ?Coal Commission?) among others are currently debating alternative pathways toward a coal phaseout to achieve the national climate targets. The Coal Commission has been tasked with submitting specific recommendations by the end of 2018. Supported by detailed model calculations, the present study shows that a rapid reduction in coal-fired power [...] ( more )

DIW on 14.08.2018, 03:00 h
The Economic Cost of Subway Congestion: Estimates from Paris

Abstract: Related to the increased encouragement of public transport (PT) by policy-makers, over-crowding in PT has become a major issue worldwide. Whilst the impact of in-vehicle crowding on individuals' travel costs has been considered, we focus on aggregate welfare losses. We apply a Pigouvian framework to the case of subways and compute the economic cost of congestion (ECC). We combine data of the 14 metro services of the Paris network with survey data from a contingent valuation study of in-vehicle congestion. The gap between current and optimal PT patronage is 9%, and ECC is moderate. For the entire Paris subway network our benchmark estimate of [...] ( more )

DIW on 14.08.2018, 02:00 h
A Novel Sampling Strategy for Surveying High-Worth Individuals - An Application Using the Socio-Economic Panel

Abstract: High-worth individuals are typically underrepresented or completely missing in population surveys. The lack of a register-based sampling frame on high-worth individuals in many countries challenged previous attempts to sample high-worth individuals in voluntary scienti?c surveys. In a novel research design, we draw on register data on the shareholding structures of companies as a sampling frame. Our design builds on the empirical regularity that high-worth individuals are likely to hold at least part of their assets in the form of shareholdings. Based on data from over 270 million companies worldwide, we identi?ed individuals who are [...] ( more )

DIW on 14.08.2018, 02:00 h
Drivers of Renewable Technology Adoption in the Household Sector

Abstract: Using representative household survey panel data from Germany, we undertake a simultaneous assessment of the importance of factors that have individually been found significant for the adoption of renewable energy systems but have never been tested jointly. These are sociodemographic and housing characteristics, environmental concern, personality traits, and economic factors, i.e. the expected costs of and revenue from the investment. Our results suggest that household decisions to invest in photovoltaic systems and solar thermal facilities are mainly driven by the economic factors. Taking account of sociodemographic and housing [...] ( more )

DIW on 13.08.2018, 12:00 h
Video Recordings in Experiments – Are There Effects on Self-Selection or the Outcome of the Experiment?

Abstract: The use of video recordings in experimental economics has become increasingly popular. However, little attention is paid to how this might affect the composition of the participating subjects and the intended treatment effect. We make a first attempt to shed light on these issues and address them in an incentivized face-to-face tax compliance experiment. The experiment contains two dimensions; i) the level of the fine for non-compliance; and ii) the presence of a recording video camera. The 2x2 design frees the intended treatment effect of the fine from any effect resulting from the announced use of a camera. Our findings point in the [...] ( more )

DIW on 13.08.2018, 02:00 h
Does Subsidized Care for Toddlers Increase Maternal Labor Supply?: Evidence from a Large-Scale Expansion of Early Childcare

Abstract: Expanding public or publicly subsidized childcare has been a top social policy priority in many industrialized countries. It is supposed to increase fertility, promote children's development and enhance mothers' labor market attachment. In this paper, we analyze the causal effect of one of the largest expansions of subsidized childcare for children up to three years among industrialized countries on the employment of mothers in Germany. Identification is based on spatial and temporal variation in the expansion of publicly subsidized childcare triggered by two comprehensive childcare policy reforms. The empirical analysis is based on the [...] ( more )

DIW on 08.08.2018, 12:00 h
Diesel Fuel and Passenger Cars Receive Preferential Tax Treatment in Europe; Reform of Taxation Needed in Germany

Abstract: Duties and taxes on cars are an important source of revenue for European governments and the tax systems are also designed with the goal of achieving environmental policy objectives. A systematic and quantitative comparison of passenger car taxation in 30 European countries shows significant differences among them. However, in almost every country, the use of vehicles with diesel engines is taxed less than that of cars with gasoline engines, and the share of fixed charges (on acquisition, registration, and ownership) is higher than the share of use-related levies. Germany has shifted its position with regard to both types of tax and now [...] ( more )

DIW on 08.08.2018, 05:00 h
Identifying Uncertainty Shocks Using the Price of Gold

Abstract: We propose an instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a proxy structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). The instrument equals the variations in the price of gold around events associated with unexpected changes in uncertainty. These variations correlate with uncertainty shocks because gold is perceived as a safe haven asset. To control for news?related effects associated with the events we identify uncertainty and news shocks jointly, developing a set?identified proxy SVAR. We find that the popular recursive approach underestimates the effects of uncertainty shocks and delivers responses for economic activity and monetary [...] ( more )

DIW on 07.08.2018, 10:00 h
Social Image Concerns and Welfare Take-Up

Abstract: Using a laboratory experiment, we present first evidence that social image concerns causally reduce the take-up of an individually beneficial transfer. Our design manipulates the informativeness of the take-up decision by varying whether transfer eligibility is based on ability or luck, and how the transfer is financed. We find that subjects avoid the inference both of being low-skilled (ability stigma) and of being willing to live o_ others (free-rider stigma). Using a placebo treatment, we exclude other explanations for the observed stigma effects. Although stigma reduces take-up, elicitation of political preferences reveals that only a [...] ( more )

DIW on 06.08.2018, 05:00 h
The Dominance of Introspective Measures and What This Implies: The Example of Environmental Attitude

Abstract: The behavioral sciences, including most of psychology, seek to explain and predict behavior with the help of theories and models that involve concepts (e.g., attitudes) that are subsequently translated into measures. Currently, some subdisciplines such as social psychology focus almost exclusively on measures that demand reflection or even introspection when administered to persons. We argue that such a focus hinders progress in explaining behavior. One major reason is that such an exclusive focus on reflections results in common method bias, which then produces spurious relations, or in other words, low discriminant validity. Without the [...] ( more )

DIW on 30.07.2018, 11:00 h
Business Cycles and Start-ups across Industries: An Empirical Analysis of German Regions

Abstract: We analyze whether start-up rates in different industries systematically change with business cycle variables. Using a unique data set at the industry level, we mostly find correlations that are consistent with counter-cyclical influences of the business cycle on entries in both innovative and non-innovative industries. Entries into the largescale industries, including the innovative part of manufacturing, are only influenced by changes in the cyclical component of unemployment, while entries into small-scale industries, like knowledge intensive services, are mostly influenced by changes in the cyclical component of GDP. Thus, our analysis [...] ( more )

DIW on 30.07.2018, 03:00 h
Replication Studies in Economics — How Many and Which Papers Are Chosen for Replication, and Why?

Abstract: We investigate how often replication studies are published in empirical economics and what types of journal articles are replicated. We find that between 1974 and 2014 0.1% of publications in the top 50 economics journals were replication studies. We consider the results of published formal replication studies (whether they are negating or reinforcing) and their extent: Narrow replication studies are typically devoted to mere replication of prior work, while scientific replication studies provide a broader analysis. We find evidence that higher-impact articles and articles by authors from leading institutions are more likely to be [...] ( more )

DIW on 27.07.2018, 10:00 h
Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross?Country Evidence of Granularity

Abstract: Does the mere presence of big banks affect macroeconomic outcomes? We develop a theory of granularity for the banking sector by modeling heterogeneous banks charging variable markups. Using data for a large set of countries, we show that the banking sector is indeed ?granular,? as the right tail of the bank size distribution follows a power law. We demonstrate empirically that the presence of big banks, measured by a high degree of market concentration, is associated with a positive and significant relationship between bank?level credit growth and aggregate growth of credit or GDP.
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DIW on 27.07.2018, 04:00 h
Exploring the Possibilities and Boundaries of Survey Data for the Analysis of Wealth and Wealth Transfers

Abstract: In Germany, a flagrant lack of official register or tax data for scholarly use leads to a situation wherein survey data is the last remaining source of evidence about the distribution of wealth. Two of the four research chapters in this thesis aim to evaluate methods for the improvement of available survey data. The other two contributions discuss the possibilities and limitations of survey data for the analysis of the joint distribution of wealth and wealth transfers. The first research contribution ?Longitudinal wealth data and multiple imputation -- An evaluation study? is a simulation exercise that intends to improve the imputation [...] ( more )

DIW on 27.07.2018, 02:00 h
Language Barriers during the Fieldwork of the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees in Germany

Abstract: The IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees is one of the first large-scale quantitative surveys in Germany focusing on refugees exclusively. It is able to provide valuable insights on the recent cohort of refugees who arrived in Germany as of the year 2013. However, due to the fact that most respondents of the target population are not proficient in German, the research partners who conducted the survey faced several obstacles. One crucial aspect in this regard was the written and audio translation of field instruments. Therefore, this paper gives some insights into the translation and fielding procedures and presents numbers on the use of written [...] ( more )

DIW on 27.07.2018, 02:00 h
On the Economics of Electrical Storage for Variable Renewable Energy Sources

Abstract: The use of renewable energy sources is a major strategy to mitigate climate change. Yet Sinn (2017) argues that excessive electrical storage requirements limit the further expansion of variable wind and solar energy. We question, and alter, strong implicit assumptions of Sinn?s approach and find that storage needs are considerably lower, up to two orders of magnitude. First, we move away from corner solutions by allowing for combinations of storage and renewable curtailment. Second, we specify a parsimonious optimization model that explicitly considers an economic efficiency perspective. We conclude that electrical storage is unlikely to [...] ( more )

DIW on 25.07.2018, 05:00 h
Signs of New Housing Bubble in Many OECD Countries – Lower Risk in Germany

Abstract: Ten years after the worldwide financial and economic crisis was triggered by the American real estate market, real estate prices are rising around the globe. Concerns about a new housing bubble are growing. The present report based on OECD data for 20 countries demonstrates that this concern is not unwarranted. In eight countries, including the United Kingdom and the USA, the evolution of real estate prices indicates that speculative investment behavior is at work. The continued high level of private household debt and low interest rates are evidence of a new bubble in those countries. There are also signs of this in Germany, but primarily [...] ( more )

DIW on 25.07.2018, 05:00 h
Bootstrapping Impulse Responses of Structural Vector Autoregressive Models Identified through GARCH

Abstract: Different bootstrap methods and estimation techniques for inference for structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models identified by conditional heteroskedasticity are reviewed and compared in a Monte Carlo study. The model is a SVAR model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) innovations. The bootstrap methods considered are a wild bootstrap, a moving blocks bootstrap and a GARCH residual based bootstrap. Estimation is done by Gaussian maximum likelihood, a simplified procedure based on univariate GARCH estimations and a method that does not re-estimate the GARCH parameters in each bootstrap replication. It is [...] ( more )

DIW on 25.07.2018, 04:00 h
How Cohabitation, Marriage, Separation and Divorce Influence BMI: A Prospective Panel Study

Abstract: Objective: This study examines how changes in cohabitation or marital status affect Body Mass Index (BMI) over time in a large representative sample. Methods: Participants were 20,950 individuals (50% female; 19 to 100 years), representative of the German population, who provided 81,926 observations over 16 years. Face-to-face interviews were used to obtain demographic data, including cohabitation and marital status, height, body weight, and weight-relevant behaviors (exercise, healthy eating, and smoking). Control variables included age, notable changes in status (life events such as having children or change in employment status), [...] ( more )

DIW on 25.07.2018, 04:00 h
Age Differences in Intertemporal Choice: U-Shaped Associations in a Probability Sample of German Households

Abstract: To describe adult age differences in intertemporal choice, we analyzed data from 1,491 participants who completed an incentivized monetary intertemporal discounting choice task involving different conditions (e.g., time delay of 12 months vs. 1 month). Respondents completed a number of other survey measures, including behavioral measures of cognitive ability, and self-reports concerning health, financial security, and demographic characteristics. We found significant quadratic (U-shaped) effects of age in task conditions involving 12-month (but not 1-month) delays, with middle-aged adults proving most patient relative to younger and older [...] ( more )

DIW on 23.07.2018, 12:00 h
Track Access Charges: Reconciling Conflicting Objectives: Case Study – Germany


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DIW on 23.07.2018, 03:00 h
2nd Policy Brief on SET-Nav Case Studies


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DIW on 23.07.2018, 02:00 h
Issue Paper on Case Study 7.5: Perspectives for Nuclear Power


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DIW on 23.07.2018, 02:00 h
Issue Paper and Proceedings on Aggregating Load Profiles: … from the Power Sector Models Towards Use in Large-Scale Energy-System and Integrated Assessment Models


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DIW on 23.07.2018, 02:00 h
Case Study Report on The Role for Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage in Electricity and Industry in the Future: Which Role for Infrastructure?


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DIW on 20.07.2018, 11:00 h
Filling Gaps in the Policy Package to Decarbonise Production and Use of Materials


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DIW on 20.07.2018, 03:00 h
Empirical Advances in the Measurement and Analysis of Violent Conflict

Abstract: Violent conflict is one of the most persistent challenges affecting the economic livelihoodsand food security of individuals worldwide. Despite the surge in literature studying theimpacts and drivers of armed conflict, there remains notable knowledge and methodologicalgaps, particularly regarding the quality of conflict event data. Using variousadvanced econometric and statistical techniques, this monograph contributes empiricallyto this literature by studying three interrelated issues. (i) The impact of violenceexposure on radicalization; (ii) the magnitude of selection and veracity biases in mediabasedconflict event data; and (iii) the [...] ( more )

DIW on 20.07.2018, 01:00 h
Monetary Policy, External Instruments and Heteroskedasticity

Abstract: We develop a vector autoregressive framework for combining the information in an external instrument with the information in the second moments of the data to identify latent monetary shocks in the United States. We show that the framework improves the identification of the structural model and allows testing the validity of instruments proposed in the literature. Using a valid instrument, we then document that surprise monetary contractions lead to a medium-sized significant decline in economic activity, that the contractionary effect is also present during the great moderation, and that the role of monetary shocks in driving real and [...] ( more )

DIW on 18.07.2018, 05:00 h
Homeownership and Wealth in Switzerland and Germany

Abstract: Property wealth represents the most important wealth component in nearly all OECD countries. Homeownership is linked to wealth accumulation in several ways: Wealthier households are more likely to buy a house or apartment, home owners tend to save more and rising house values typically yield higher returns than money in a bank account. Moreover, owners can borrow on a mortgage to finance, e.g., the formation of an enterprise or other economic activities. At the aggregate level, these relations can explain why countries with low rates of homeownership tend to have a high wealth inequality.This paper looks at wealth and homeownership in [...] ( more )

DIW on 18.07.2018, 04:00 h
Does Financial Literacy Improve Financial Inclusion? Cross Country Evidence

Abstract: While financial inclusion is typically addressed by improving the financial infrastructure, we show that a higher degree of financial literacy also has a clear beneficial effect. We study this effect at the cross-country level, which allows us to consider institutional variation. Regarding ?access to finance?, financial infrastructure and financial literacy are mainly substitutes. However, regarding the ?use of financial services?, the effect of higher financial literacy strengthens the effect of more financial depth. The causal interpretation of these results is supported by IV-regressions. Moreover, the positive impact of financial [...] ( more )

DIW on 18.07.2018, 03:00 h
The Greek Private Sector Remains Full of Untapped Potential

Abstract: Private businesses? nominal value added in Greece has fallen by 38 percent over the last ten years. Micro firms were hit particularly hard. Despite efforts to stabilize the macroeconomic environment, there are only weak signs of recovery. Future prospects are not much better, as?with the exception of labor market regulations?the conditions for investments and business activities have not been sufficiently changed through eight years of reform process. Fundamental issues? excessive red tape, bulky administrative procedures, slow courts, complicated taxes, and an inefficient knowledge transfer? remain unaddressed. Greece cannot [...] ( more )

DIW on 17.07.2018, 12:00 h
‘Universal’ Early Education: Who Benefits? Patterns in Take?up of the Entitlement to Free Early Education among Three?Year?Olds in England

Abstract: For over a decade, all three?year?olds in England have been entitled to a free part?time early education place. One aim of this policy is to close developmental gaps between higher?income and low?income children. However, the success of the initiative depends on children accessing the places. Using the National Pupil Database, we examine all autumn?born four?year?olds attending in January 2011, and ask whether they started attending when first eligible, in January 2010. One in five children did not access their free place from the beginning, and the proportion is much higher among children from families with persistently low [...] ( more )

DIW on 17.07.2018, 05:00 h
Interactions in Fixed Effects Regression Models

Abstract: An interaction in a fixed effects (FE) regression is usually specified by demeaning the product term. However, this strategy does not yield a genuine within estimator. Instead, an estimator is produced that reflects unit-level differences of interacted variables whose moderators vary within units. This is desirable if the interaction of one unit-specific and one time-dependent variable is specified in FE, but it may yield problematic results if both interacted variables vary within units. Then, as algebraic transformations show, the FE interaction estimator picks up unit-specific effect heterogeneity of both variables. Accordingly, Monte [...] ( more )

DIW on 16.07.2018, 12:00 h
Aftermath of Financial Crises and Natural Disasters on Public Budgets


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DIW on 16.07.2018, 12:00 h
The End of Cheap Labor: Are Foreign Investors Leaving China?

Abstract: China's government has been promoting the shift toward a consumption-based economy in the past few years to arrive at a path of sustainable and socially inclusive growth. In this context, the explicit goal to significantly raise the percentage ofwages in the national household income was an integral part of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011?15). These changes in economic strategy are likely to affect the attractiveness of the country to foreign investors. In this paper, we raise the hypothesis that soaring relative wages negatively affect foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to China, and alter their distribution within China. In addition, [...] ( more )